Global Economy updates
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Hello and welcome to the working week.
Studies show that delayed gratification is one of the most effective personal traits of successful people. If that is the case, then this is going to be quite the week — and not just for James Bond fans, such as the FT’s Peter Aspden, who finally get to watch the long-awaited No Time to Die film.
Also taking place later than originally billed this week are: the Expo 2020 Dubai; the China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition, a chance for the country to show off its military prowess and drive for self-sufficiency in its biggest air show; and the London Marathon, taking the UK further down the road of normalisation amid the pandemic. The UK is also ending the (extended) stamp duty holiday that provides tax relief for homebuyers, and its furlough programme, aimed at preventing a pandemic-led unemployment spike.
Talking of coronavirus, Monday brings a key moment for Joe Biden’s $1tn infrastructure bill as it is the deadline for the House of Representatives to vote on the legislation to lift the economy.
One thing that has arrived on time is the UK’s political party conference season. Attention is focused on whether Labour leader Keir Starmer can clearly articulate his vision in his speech to delegates on Wednesday.
Next will be the Conservatives. While Boris Johnson has clear authority over his party, he does have to worry about what former Tory prime minister Harold Macmillan called “events, dear boy”, notably lorry driver shortages and recent sharp rises in the cost of living for Brits.
Once again, thank you for the messages of support, and suggestions, for this newsletter — sent to [email protected] — and please keep them coming.
Analysts will be looking a bit further forward than the next seven days when Lego reports quarterly earnings on Tuesday. The Danish toymaker has maintained impressive growth despite struggling with its development of hybrid physical-digital products. But analysts will want to know whether it can get enough stock into stores for Christmas given global supply chain challenges.
EasyJet is due to announce the result of its surprise rights issue on Monday. Investors would like to know what the airline is doing with the money.
The FT’s Coronavirus Business Update newsletter changed form last week to become The Road to Recovery, reflecting the need to look at the state of economies trying to move beyond the pandemic. You can sign up to receive it by clicking here.
We will get some insight into whether the economic picture is brightening in the eurozone with consumer confidence, unemployment and inflation figures out on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday respectively. We also have consumer confidence measures for the US, France and Germany, and GDP data from the US and Canada.
Key economic and company reports
Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.
EasyJet announces results of its rights issue
UK, Bank of England monthly statistics for capital issuance
UK, IHS Markit quarterly Scottish Widows Household Finance Index
France, Germany, US: Consumer confidence figures
Japan, central bank publishes minutes of its July policy meeting
UK, Financial Conduct Authority’s Annual Public Meeting
UK, Covid-19 schools infection survey for England
UK, Office for National Statistics (ONS) house price data
US, Federal Housing Finance Agency monthly house price index
Results Ferguson FY, Lego H1, Smiths Group FY
EU, Alphabet’s Google starts court appeal to overturn €4.3bn antitrust fine
EU, Eurostat economic sentiment and business climate indicators
UK, Bank of England consumer credit figures
Results Next H1
Autogrill revenue update
China, Markit’s Caixin general manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI)
EU, Eurostat’s monthly unemployment figures
France, Producer Price Index figures
Germany, unemployment and inflation figures
Japan, industrial production figures
UK, Nationwide monthly house price index
UK, ONS revision to quarterly GDP figures
US, Department of Commerce quarterly GDP figures
Canada, monthly GDP figures
EU, Eurozone flash inflation figures
European Banking Federation’s European Banking Summit, this year held online
Germany, retail sales data
Italy, Istat monthly unemployment figures and consumer price indices
Japan, unemployment rate
Spain, Italy, Japan, UK: manufacturing PMIs
UK, ONS quarterly business investment figures, Q2 balance of payments, quarterly economic accounts and quarterly consumer trends data
Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.
UK, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey addresses the Society of Professional Economists
US, deadline set for House of Representatives to vote on Joe Biden’s $1tn infrastructure plan
China, International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition begins
Annual European Central Bank central bankers forum, this year held online Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell, ECB president Christine Lagarde, Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda and the Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey are all speaking
France, Paris Fashion Week — womenswear — begins in the French capital
UK, premier of new James Bond film, No Time To Die, at the Royal Albert Hall
US, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann discusses inflation on a panel at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics
UK, election for the next Lord Mayor of the City of London
UK, Labour party conference in Brighton ends
US, EU-US Trade and Technology Council holds first summit in Pittsburgh to discuss defending critical supply chains and technologies, such as artificial intelligence
US, UN Security Council meets in New York to discuss the Middle East
UK, coronavirus job retention scheme ends
UK, people attending nightclubs and other venues where large crowds gather in England will need to be fully vaccinated from today
United Arab Emirates, delayed Expo 2020 Dubai begins
US, North American International Auto Show starts in Detroit
Vatican City, ‘Green pass’ health certificate, showing proof of immunity from Covid-19 now required from visitors to the city state
Kenya takes over presidency of UN Security Council
UK, Black History Month begins
Germany, celebrations to mark 31 years since reunification
UK, Conservative party conference begins in Manchester
UK, London Marathon held for first time in 18 months
US, International Air Transport Association annual general meeting
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