Bears on the lookout for a test of critical daily support

AUD/JPY is trapped between support and resistance on the daily time frame. 
Bears are seeking a monthly and weekly time frame pull back. 

The following is a top-down analysis that shows the price action related to market stricture. We can see that there are no swing trading opportunities until the price breaks out of the sideways channel. 

However, a higher risk opportunity has presented its self of the 4-hour chart, targeting a breakout the channel’s support. 

Reserve Bank of Australia’s governor Phillip Lowe is speaking at the top of the hour which may provide a catalyst for setup and the market as it could trigger some price action in the lower time frames.

Monthly chart

There is potential for the price to turn lower for a test of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and prior resistance. 

 

Weekly chart

The weekly chart offers an opposing candle within the bullish rally that may act as support in a pullback. 

 

Daily chart

the market is trapped in a sideways channel between support and resistance. 

4-hour chart

The 4-hour chart offers a potential opportunity from the M-formation’s neckline to the downside if the price manages to complete a 50% mean reversion on a 4-hour closing basis.

That is not to say that the price cannot simply melt from here, considering it has already been rejected at the neckline and prior lows.

However, the wick represents a lower time frame’s prospects for the upside, so the wick can be expected to be filled.