Central scenario is conditions for rate rise will not be met until 2024

The RBA Minutes September meeting are released and the central scenario is conditions for rate rise will not be met until 2024.

Key notes

Board committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions.

Outbreak of the delta variant had delayed, but not derailed, the recovery.

Economy was expected to bounce back as vaccination rates increase and restrictions are eased.

Board will continue to review the bond purchase program in light of economic conditions and the health situation.

Considerable uncertainty about the timing and pace of the recovery, which was likely to be slower than experienced earlier.

Bank’s bond purchase program is expanding faster relative to the stock of bonds outstanding than that of many other central banks.

Members continued to emphasise the importance of maintaining lending standards.

Progress towards the bank’s goals was likely to take longer and was less assured given delta.

Members recognised that the outbreak of the delta variant was delaying the recovery and had added to the uncertainty about the future.

AUD/USD reaction

AUD/USD is a touch lower on the release considering the dovish tilt but remains within the session’s range of between 0.7241 and 0.7266.

AUD/USD Price Analysis: RBA Minutes in focus, break of 0.7220s eyed

About RBA minutes

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) publishes the minutes of its monetary policy meeting two weeks after the interest rate decision is announced. It provides a detailed record of the discussions held between the RBA’s board members on monetary policy and economic conditions that influenced their decision on adjusting interest rates and/or bond buys, significantly impacting the AUD. The minutes also reveal considerations on international economic developments and the exchange rate value.

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