RIL Q3 Results Preview: RIL Q3 Results Preview: Expect strong PAT growth driven by higher GRM; Jio ARPU seen at Rs 149
NEW DELHI: , the most valuable company in India, is likely to post a strong set of numbers for the December quarter when it reports its earnings on Friday.
The company is estimated to report 10-25 per cent year-on-year (YoY) profit growth and 45-70 per cent growth in revenues, analysts said. Margins are also likely to suffer, they added.
“We expect consolidated profit after tax (PAT) to increase by 10 per cent sequentially led by strong growth in standalone business on higher gross refining margins (GRMs). Petchem margin, a decent performance by Jio led by telecom tariff hike and solid recovery in EBITDA of the retail business,” said analysts at Sharekhan.
Reliance Industries had reported a 43 per cent YoY rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 13,680 crore for the quarter ended September. The oil-to-telecom company reported a 48 per cent growth in its consolidated revenue from operations to Rs 1.74 lakh crore.
Emkay Global estimates Reliance Industries O2C EBITDA to increase by 4 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to Rs 13,200 crore on better GRMs, partly offset by weaker petchem margins. Upstream EBITDA would jump 81 per cent QoQ to Rs 1,930 crore on the higher deepwater-HP-HT gas ceiling in H2FY22, it added.
“Reported retail EBITDA is estimated to rise 13 per cent YoY/20 per cent QoQ to Rs 3,510 crore on the back of a 36 per cent/10 per cent increase in revenues. In Jio, we estimate 8 million subs addition, with a 3 per cent QoQ increase in ARPU (at Rs 149) and a 3 per cent rise in EBITDA. Overall, we estimate RIL’s consolidated EBITDA/PAT to rise 14 per cent/18 per cent QoQ to Rs 29,600 crore/Rs16,100 crore,” the broker added.
ICICIdirect also said it expects Jio to continue to lead subscriber addition with a net addition of 8 million. The monthly ARPU, like peers, will witness growth, driven by tariff hike, at 4 per cent QoQ at Rs 149.
The lower ARPU growth for Jio is owing to a lag between tariff hike vs peers and a larger share of long-duration renewals. The overall revenue is expected to grow 3.5 per cent QoQ at Rs 19,387 crore. EBITDA at Rs 9,333 crore is likely to grow 3.8 per cent QoQ.
Jio’s overall EBITDA margins are expected at 48.1 per cent (up 10 bps QoQ). Key monitorable would be a commentary on ARPU trajectory and JioFiber.
YES Securities said Reliance is expected to report YoY and QoQ better earnings on improvement in retail segments profitability, improvement in refinery margins and QoQ higher ARPUs and net subscriber addition of 6 million subscribers.