Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group’s Global Economics & Markets Research, noted that further upside in USD/THB is expected to face a strong hurdle at 33.13.
“We highlighted last Monday (21 Feb, spot at 32.13) that ‘further USD/THB weakness is not ruled out but conditions remain deeply oversold and a sustained decline below 31.95 appears unlikely’. We added, ‘a breach of 32.32 would indicate that the current USD/THB weakness has stabilized’. While we noted the oversold conditions, we did not expect the sharp and swift bounce as USD/THB soared to 32.89 last Thursday (24 Feb).”
“Daily RSI is unwinding rapidly from oversold conditions and this coupled with daily MACD moving into positive territory suggests the rebound has more room to go. A breach of the 55-day exponential moving average at 32.92 would not be surprising but the declining trend-line at 33.13 is a strong resistance level and may not be easy to crack. On the downside, a break of 32.30 (minor support is at 32.44) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.”