A preview of the NFP from GS, but first a look at consensus expectations.
snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar,
times in the left-most column are GMT.
numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month)
number in the column next to that, where is a number, is what is the
consensus median expected.
Goldman Sachs’ estimate for the headline number us a drop of 250,000, well under the consensus of +150K
Our forecast reflects a large and temporary drag from Omicron on the order of 500-1000k, as survey data indicate a surge in absenteeism during the monthWe estimate an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.9%—in line with consensus—reflecting likely declines in both household employment and labour force participation due to the virus wave.